Hurricane Impact on the Mayan Collapse

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One theory about the Mayan Collapse that has been put forward is that periods of intense drought, calculated by observing stalactites in the area, were one of the main causes of collapse (Douglas et. Al, 2016). Furthermore, it has been hypothesized that the Mayan civilization relied heavily on hurricane activity to obtain water due to low amounts of groundwater in the area (Medina-Elizalde and Rohling, 2012). This hypothesis makes the further claim that the periods of drought could have been influenced by a lack of tropical storms during that time period.

However, a study by Skidmore College refutes these claims, stating that droughts during the Mayan Civilization were likely even worse than originally observed, and that mud layers created by hurricanes were likely under-recorded due to the severity of the droughts (Frappier et al, 2014). Under this hypothesis, Mayans had faced intense periods of drought, followed by intense periods of hurricane activity. This combination made it difficult for the mud layers to be properly measured. In addition, flooding by hurricane activity could have impacted agricultural areas and residential homes, which makes it a separate issue from drought (Frappier et al, 2014). Therefore, they conclude that droughts were unlikely to have been caused by a lack of hurricanes. However, they acknowledge that the constant presence of hurricanes, along with other environmental factors, could have been a major factor to the collapse of Mayan civilization.

For this study, I will explore the potential impact that hurricanes had on Mayan civilization, and what areas would be most susceptible to hurricane activity. Using data obtained from Mexico's National Center for Prevention of Disasters (CENAPRED), I overlaid two maps, tropic storm risk and flood risk, to obtain an aggregated risk score.

Results show that the Mayan City of Coba was particularly susceptible to hurricane damage.